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About the
CBI
February 2006
Background Note:
Pakistan
Flag of Pakistan is green with a vertical white band (symbolizing the role
of
religious minorities) on the hoist side; a large white crescent and star
are
centered in the green field; the crescent, star, and color green
are
traditional symbols of
Islam.
PROFILE
OFFICIAL
NAME:
Islamic Republic of
Pakistan
Geography
Area: 803,943 sq. km. (310,527 sq. mi.); almost twice the size of
California.
Cities: Capital--The city of Islamabad (pop. 800,000) and adjacent
Rawalpindi
(1,406, 214) comprise the national capital area with a combined population
of
3.7 million. Other cities--Karachi (11,624,219) (2005 est.),
Lahore
(6,310,888) (2005 est.), Faisalabad (1,977,246) and Hyderabad
(1,151,274).
People
Nationality: Noun and adjective--Pakistan(i).
Population (2005 est.):
162,419.946.
Annual growth rate (2005 est.):
2.03%.
Ethnic groups: Punjabi, Sindhi, Pushtun, Baloch, Muhajir (i.e.,
Urdu-speaking
immigrants from India and their descendants), Saraiki, and Hazara.
Religions: Muslim 97%; small minorities of Christians, Hindus, and
others.
Languages: Urdu (national and official), English, Punjabi, Sindhi, Pushtu,
Baloch, Hindko, Brahui, Saraiki (Punjabi
variant).
Education: Literacy (2003)--45.7%; male 59.8%; female 30.6%.
Unofficial
estimates are as low as
35%.
Health: Infant mortality rate (2005 est.)--72.44/1,000. Life expectancy
(2005
est.)--men 62.04 yrs., women 64.01
yrs.
Work force (2004): Agriculture--42%; services--38%;
industry--20%.
Government
Type: Parliamentary
democracy.
Independence: August 14,
1947.
Branches: Executive--president (chief of state), prime minister (head
of
government). Legislative--Bicameral Parliament or Majlis-e-Shoora
(100-seat
Senate, 342-seat National Assembly). Judicial--Supreme Court, provincial
high
courts, Federal Islamic (or Shari'a)
Court.
Political parties: Pakistan Muslim League (PML), Pakistan People's
Party
(PPP), Muttahid Majlis-e-Amal (umbrella group) (MMA), Muttahida Qaumi
Movement (MQM), and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N).
Suffrage: Universal at
18.
Political subdivisions: 4 provinces; also the Federally Administered
Tribal
Areas and the Pakistani-administered portion of the disputed Jammu
and
Kashmir region (Azad Kashmir and the Northern
Areas).
Economy
GDP (2004 est.): PPP $347.3
billion.
Real annual growth rate (2004):
6.1%.
Per capita GDP (2004): PPP
$2,200.
Natural resources: Arable land, natural gas, limited oil,
substantial
hydropower potential, coal, iron ore, copper, salt,
limestone.
Agriculture: Products--wheat, cotton, rice, sugarcane, eggs,
fruits,
vegetables, milk, beef,
mutton.
Industry: Types--textiles & apparel, food processing,
pharmaceuticals,
construction materials, shrimp, fertilizer, and paper
products.
Trade (2004): Exports--$15.07 billion: textiles (garments, bed linen,
cotton
cloth, and yarn), rice, leather goods, sports goods, carpets, rugs,
chemicals
& manufactures. Major partners--U.S. 21.3%, United Arab Emirates 9.8%,
U.K.
7.1%, Germany 5.2%, Hong Kong 4.2%, Saudi Arabia 4.1%.
Imports--$14.01
billion: petroleum, petroleum products, machinery, plastics, paper and
paper
board, transportation equipment, edible oils, pulses, iron and steel,
tea.
Major partners--China 10.8%, U.S. 10.2%, United Arab Emirates 9.3%,
Saudi
Arabia 9.0%, Japan 7.0%, Kuwait 5.3%, Germany
4.2%.
PEOPLE
The majority of Pakistan's population lives in the Indus River valley and
in
an arc formed by the cities of Faisalabad, Lahore, Rawalpindi/Islamabad,
and
Peshawar. Although Urdu is an official language of Pakistan, it is spoken
as
a first language by only 8% of the population; 48% speak Punjabi, 12%
Sindhi,
10% Saraiki, 8% Pushtu, 3% Baloch, and 3% other. Urdu, Punjabi, Pushtu,
and
Baloch are Indo-European languages. English is the other official
language,
and is widely used in government, the officer ranks of the military, and
in
many institutions of higher
learning.
HISTORY
Pakistan, along with parts of western India, contains the
archeological
remains of an urban civilization dating back 4,500 years. Alexander the
Great
included the Indus Valley in his empire in 326 B.C., and his
successors
founded the Indo-Greek kingdom of Bactria based in what is today
Afghanistan
and extending to Peshawar. Following the rise of the Central Asian Kushan
Empire in later centuries, the Buddhist culture of Afghanistan and
Pakistan,
centered on the city of Taxila just west of Islamabad, experienced a
cultural
renaissance known as the Gandhara
period.
Pakistan's Islamic history began with the arrival of Muslim traders in
the
8th century in Sindh. The collapse of the Mughal Empire in the 18th
century
provided an opportunity to the English East India Company to extend
its
control over much of the subcontinent. The Sikh adventurer Ranjit
Singh
carved out a dominion that extended from Kabul to Srinagar and
Lahore,
encompassing much of the northern area of modern Pakistan. British
rule
replaced the Sikhs in the first half of the 19th century. In a decision
that
had far-reaching consequences, the British permitted the Hindu Maharaja
of
Kashmir, a Sikh appointee, to continue in
power.
Pakistan emerged from an extended period of agitation by Muslims in
the
subcontinent to express their national identity free from British
colonial
domination as well as domination by what they perceived as a
Hindu-controlled
Indian National Congress. Muslim anti-colonial leaders formed the
All-India
Muslim League in 1906. Initially, the League adopted the same objective
as
the Congress--self-government for India within the British
Empire--but
Congress and the League were unable to agree on a formula that would
ensure
the protection of Muslim religious, economic, and political
rights.
Pakistan and
Partition
The idea of a separate Muslim state emerged in the 1930s. On March 23,
1940,
Muhammad Ali Jinnah, leader of the Muslim League, formally endorsed
the
"Lahore Resolution," calling for the creation of an independent state
in
regions where Muslims constituted a majority. At the end of World War II,
the
United Kingdom moved with increasing urgency to grant India independence.
The
Congress Party and the Muslim League, however, could not agree on the
terms
for a Constitution or establishing an interim government. In June 1947,
the
British Government declared that it would bestow full dominion status
upon
two successor states--India and Pakistan, formed from areas in
the
subcontinent in which Muslims were the majority population. Under
this
arrangement, the various princely states could freely join either India
or
Pakistan. Accordingly, on August 14, 1947 Pakistan, comprising West
Pakistan
with the provinces of Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan, and the Northwest
Frontier
Province (NWFP), and East Pakistan with the province of Bengal,
became
independent. East Pakistan later became the independent nation of
Bangladesh.
The Maharaja of Kashmir was reluctant to make a decision on accession
to
either Pakistan or India. However, armed incursions into the state
by
tribesman from the NWFP led him to seek military assistance from India.
The
Maharaja signed accession papers in October 1947 and allowed Indian
troops
into much of the state. The Government of Pakistan, however, refused
to
recognize the accession and campaigned to reverse the decision. The status
of
Kashmir has remained in
dispute.
After
Independence
With the death in 1948 of its first head of state, Muhammad Ali Jinnah,
and
the assassination in 1951 of its first prime minister, Liaqat Ali
Khan,
political instability and economic difficulty became prominent features
of
post-independence Pakistan. On October 7, 1958, President Iskander Mirza,
with the support of the army, suspended the 1956 Constitution,
imposed
martial law, and canceled the elections scheduled for January 1959.
Twenty
days later the military sent Mirza into exile in Britain, and Gen.
Mohammad
Ayub Khan assumed control of a military dictatorship. After Pakistan's
loss
in the 1965 war against India, Ayub Khan's power declined.
Subsequent
political and economic grievances inspired agitation movements that
compelled
his resignation in March 1969. He handed over responsibility for governing
to
the commander in chief of the army, General Agha Mohammed Yahya Khan,
who
became President and Chief Martial Law
Administrator.
General elections held in December 1970 polarized relations between
the
eastern and western sections of Pakistan. The Awami League, which
advocated
autonomy for the more populous East Pakistan, swept the East Pakistan
seats
to gain a majority in Pakistan as a whole. The Pakistan Peoples Party
(PPP),
founded and led by Ayub Khan's former Foreign Minister Zulfikar Ali
Bhutto,
won a majority of the seats in West Pakistan, but the country was
completely
split with neither major party having any support in the other
area.
Negotiations to form a coalition government broke down, and a civil
war
ensued. India attacked East Pakistan and captured Dhaka in December
1971,
when the eastern section declared itself the independent nation
of
Bangladesh. Yahya Khan then resigned the presidency and handed
over
leadership of the western part of Pakistan to Bhutto, who became
President
and the first civilian Chief Martial Law
Administrator.
Bhutto moved decisively to restore national confidence and pursued an
active
foreign policy, taking a leading role in Islamic and Third World
forums.
Although Pakistan did not formally join the Non-Aligned Movement until
1979,
the position of the Bhutto government coincided largely with that of
the
non-aligned nations. Domestically, Bhutto pursued a populist agenda
and
nationalized major industries and the banking system. In 1973, he
promulgated
a new Constitution accepted by most political elements and relinquished
the
presidency to become prime minister. Although Bhutto continued his
populist
and socialist rhetoric, he increasingly relied on Pakistan's
urban
industrialists and rural landlords. Over time the economy stagnated,
largely
as a result of the dislocation and uncertainty produced by
Bhutto's
frequently changing economic policies. When Bhutto proclaimed his own
victory
in the March 1977 national elections, the opposition Pakistan
National
Alliance (PNA) denounced the results as fraudulent and demanded
new
elections. Bhutto resisted and later arrested the PNA
leadership.
1977-1985 Martial
Law
With increasing anti-government unrest, the army grew restive. On July
5,
1977, the military removed Bhutto from power and arrested him,
declared
martial law, and suspended portions of the 1973 Constitution. Chief of
Army
Staff Gen. Muhammad Zia ul-Haq became Chief Martial Law Administrator
and
promised to hold new elections within 3
months.
Zia released Bhutto and asserted that he could contest new
elections
scheduled for October 1977. However, after it became clear that
Bhutto's
popularity had survived his government, Zia postponed the elections and
began
criminal investigations of the senior PPP leadership. Subsequently,
Bhutto
was convicted and sentenced to death for alleged conspiracy to murder
a
political opponent. Despite international appeals on his behalf, Bhutto
was
hanged on April 6,
1979.
Zia assumed the presidency and called for elections in November.
However,
fearful of a PPP victory, Zia banned political activity in October 1979,
and
postponed national
elections.
In 1980, most center and left parties, led by the PPP, formed the
Movement
for the Restoration of Democracy (MRD). The MRD demanded Zia's
resignation,
an end to martial law, new elections, and restoration of the Constitution,
as
it existed before Zia's takeover. In early December 1984, President Zia
proclaimed a national referendum for December 19 on his "Islamization"
program. After non-party based polls were held for the National
and
Provincial Assemblies in 1985, President Zia appointed Muhammad Khan Junejo
as the Prime Minister. He implicitly linked approval of "Islamization" with
a
mandate for his continued presidency. Zia's opponents, led by the MRD,
boycotted the elections. When the government claimed a 63% turnout, with
more
than 90% approving the referendum, many observers questioned these
figures.
1988-2005
On August 17, 1988, a plane carrying President Zia, American
Ambassador
Arnold Raphael, U.S. Brig. General Herbert Wassom, and 28 Pakistani
military
officers crashed on a return flight from a military equipment trial
near
Bahawalpur, killing all on board. In accordance with the
Constitution,
Chairman of the Senate Ghulam Ishaq Khan became Acting President
and
announced that elections scheduled for November 1988 would take
place.
Elections were held on a party basis. On one side was an eight-party
alliance
and on the other, the PPP. The PPP won 94 seats out of 207 and the
Islamic
Democratic Alliance (IJI) won 54. Muhammad Khan Junejo lost from his
home
constituency. The president was bound to invite the PPP to from
the
government, but he delayed doing so for two weeks in order to give the IJI
time to muster the support of other groups. Ultimately, the president
asked
PPP Co-chairperson Benazir Bhutto to form a
government.
The PPP, under Benazir Bhutto's leadership, succeeded in forming a
coalition
government with several smaller parties, including the Muttahida Qaumi
Movement (MQM).
Differing interpretations of constitutional authority, debates over
the
powers of the central government relative to those of the provinces, and
the
antagonistic relationship between the Bhutto administration and
opposition
governments in Punjab and Balochistan seriously impeded social and
economic
reform programs. Ethnic conflict, primarily in Sindh province,
exacerbated
these problems. A fragmentation in the governing coalition and the
military's
reluctance to support an apparently ineffectual and corrupt government
were
accompanied by a significant deterioration in law and
order.
In August 1990, President Khan, citing his powers under the eighth
amendment
to the Constitution, dismissed the Bhutto government and dissolved
the
national and provincial assemblies. New elections, held in October
1990,
confirmed the political ascendancy of the IJI. In addition to a
two-thirds
majority in the National Assembly, the alliance won control of all
four
provincial parliaments and enjoyed the support of the military and
of
President Khan. Muhammad Nawaz Sharif, as leader of the PML, the
most
prominent party in the IJI, was elected prime minister by the
National
Assembly.
Sharif emerged as the most secure and powerful Pakistani prime minister
since
the mid-1970s. Under his rule, the IJI achieved several important
political
victories. The implementation of Sharif's economic reform program,
involving
privatization, deregulation, and encouragement of private sector
economic
growth, greatly improved Pakistan's economic performance and
business
climate. The passage into law in May 1991 of a Shari'a bill, providing
for
widespread Islamization, legitimized the IJI government among much
of
Pakistani
society.
However, Nawaz Sharif was not able to reconcile the different objectives
of
the IJI's constituent parties. The largest religious party, Jamaat-i-Islami
(JI), abandoned the alliance because of its antagonism to what it regarded
as
PML hegemony. The regime was weakened further by the military's
suppression
of the MQM, which had entered into coalition with the IJI to contain
PPP
influence, and allegations of corruption directed at Nawaz Sharif. In
April
1993, President Khan, citing "maladministration, corruption, and
nepotism"
and espousal of political violence, dismissed the Sharif government, but
the
following month the Pakistan Supreme Court reinstated the National
Assembly
and the Nawaz Sharif government. Continued tensions between Sharif and
Khan
resulted in governmental gridlock and the Chief of Army Staff brokered
an
arrangement under which both the President and the Prime Minister
resigned
their offices in July
1993.
An interim government, headed by Moeen Qureshi, a former World Bank
Vice
President, took office with a mandate to hold national and
provincial
assembly elections in October. Despite its brief term, the Qureshi
government
adopted political, economic, and social reforms that generated
considerable
domestic support and foreign
admiration.
In the October 1993 elections, the PPP won a plurality of seats in
the
National Assembly, and Benazir Bhutto was asked to form a
government.
However, because it did not acquire a majority in the National Assembly,
the
PPP's control of the government depended upon the continued support
of
numerous independent parties, particularly the PML/J (Pakistan
Muslim
League-Junejo). The unfavorable circumstances surrounding PPP
rule--the
imperative of preserving a coalition government, the formidable opposition
of
Nawaz Sharif's PML/N (Pakistani Muslim League-Nawaz) movement, and
the
insecure provincial administrations--presented significant difficulties
for
the government of Prime Minister Bhutto. However, the election of
Prime
Minister Bhutto's close associate, Farooq Leghari, as President in
November
1993 gave her a stronger power
base.
In November 1996, President Leghari dismissed the Bhutto government,
charging
it with corruption, mismanagement of the economy, and implication
in
extrajudicial killings in Karachi. Elections in February 1997, resulted in
an
overwhelming victory for the PML/N, and President Leghari called upon Nawaz
Sharif to form a government. In March 1997, with the unanimous support of
the
National Assembly, Sharif amended the Constitution, stripping the
President
of the power to dismiss the government and making his power to
appoint
military service chiefs and provincial governors contingent on the
"advice"
of the Prime Minister. Another amendment prohibited elected members
from
"floor crossing" or voting against party positions. The Sharif
government
engaged in a protracted dispute with the judiciary, culminating in
the
storming of the Supreme Court by ruling party loyalists and the
engineered
dismissal of the Chief Justice and the resignation of President Leghari
in
December
1997.
The new President elected by Parliament, Rafiq Tarar, was a close
associate
of the Prime Minister. A one-sided, anti-corruption campaign was used
to
target opposition politicians and critics of the regime. Similarly,
the
government moved to restrict press criticism and ordered the arrest
and
beating of prominent journalists. As domestic criticism of Sharif's
administration intensified, Sharif attempted to replace Chief of Army
Staff
General Pervez Musharraf on October 12, 1999, with a family
loyalist,
Director General of the Interservice Intelligence Directorate, Lt.
Gen.
Ziauddin. Although General Musharraf was out of the country at the time,
the
army moved quickly to depose Sharif.
Following the October 12 ouster of the government of Prime Minister Sharif,
the military-led government stated its intention to restructure the
political
and electoral systems. On October 14, 1999, General Musharraf declared
a
state of emergency and issued the Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO),
which suspended the federal and provincial Parliaments, held the
Constitution
in abeyance, and designated Musharraf as Chief Executive. Musharraf
appointed
an eight-member National Security Council to function as Pakistan's
supreme
governing body, with mixed military/civilian appointees; a civilian
Cabinet;
and a National Reconstruction Bureau to formulate structural reforms. On
May
12, 2000, Pakistan's Supreme Court unanimously validated the October
1999
coup and granted Musharraf executive and legislative authority for 3
years
from the coup date. On June 20, 2001, Musharraf named himself as
president
and was sworn
in.
After the World Trade Center and the Pentagon were attacked on September
11,
2001, Musharraf pledged complete cooperation with the United States in
its
war on terror, which included locating and shutting down terrorist
training
camps within its borders, cracking down on extremist groups and
withdrawing
support for the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. In a referendum held on
April
30, 2002, Musharraf's presidency was extended by five more years.
The
handover from military to civilian rule came with parliamentary elections
in
November 2002, and the appointment of a civilian prime minister,
Mir
Zafarullah Khan Jamali. Having previously promised to give up his army
post
and become a civilian president, General Musharraf announced in late
2004
that he would retain his military role. In August 2004, Shaukat Aziz
was
sworn in as prime minister, having won a parliamentary vote of
confidence,
191 of 342 votes, in which the opposition
abstained.
On October 8, 2005 a magnitude 7.6 earthquake struck Pakistan, India,
and
Afghanistan. The epicenter of the earthquake was near Muzaffarabad,
the
capital of Pakistani-administered Kashmir, and approximately 60
miles
north-northeast of Islamabad. An estimated 75,000 people were killed and
2.5
million people were left homeless. The disaster of such a huge
magnitude
galvanized an international rescue and reconstruction effort in support
of
the affected
region.
GOVERNMENT AND POLITICAL
CONDITIONS
Pervez Musharraf has been chief of state since June 20, 2001. A
prolonged
confrontation over authority between Parliament and the President ended
in
December 2002 with a compromise which permitted passage of the
Legal
Framework Order (LFO) of 2002, under the terms of which President Musharraf
made his pledge to resign his military position as Commander-in-Chief in
late
2004. In 2004 General Musharraf announced that he would retain his
military
role.
The Pakistan Constitution of 1973, amended substantially in 1985 under Zia
ul-Haq, was suspended by the military government in October 1999. It
was
restored on December 31, 2002. Selected provisions of the
Constitution
pertaining to changes that President Musharraf made while the
Constitution
was suspended remain contested by political
opponents.
The president is chosen for a five-year term by an electoral
college
consisting of the Senate, National Assembly, and the provincial
assemblies.
The prime minister is selected by the National Assembly for a four-year
term.
The bicameral parliament--or Majlis-e-Shoora--consists of the Senate
(100
seats; members are indirectly elected by provincial assemblies to
serve
four-year terms) and the National Assembly (342 seats; 60 seats reserved
for
women, 10 seats reserved for minorities; members elected by popular
vote
serve four-year terms). Each of the four provinces--Punjab, Sindh,
Northwest
Frontier, and Balochistan--has a Chief Minister and provincial assembly.
The
Northern Areas, Azad Kashmir and the Federally Administered Tribal
Areas
(FATA) are administered by the federal government but enjoy
considerable
autonomy. The cabinet, National Security Council, and governors serve at
the
president's
discretion.
The judicial system comprises a Supreme Court, provincial high courts,
and
Federal Islamic (or Shari'a) Court. The Supreme Court is Pakistan's
highest
court. The president appoints the chief justice and they together
determine
the other judicial appointments. Each province has a high court, the
justices
of which are appointed by the president after conferring with the
chief
justice of the Supreme Court and the provincial chief justice. The
judiciary
is proscribed from issuing any order contrary to the decisions of
the
President. Federal Sharia Court hears cases that primarily involve Sharia,
or
Islamic law. Legislation enacted in 1991 gave legal status to Sharia.
Although Sharia was declared the law of the land, it did not replace
the
existing legal
code.
The Pakistan Muslim League (PML) and the Pakistan People's Party (PPP)
are
national political parties, while the Muttahid Majlis-e-Amal (MMA)--an
umbrella group of six religious parties, including
the
Jamaat-il-Islami--gained significant influence during the 2002
election.
After those elections, the Pakistani political system remained
highly
fragmented, with no group winning a substantial majority of seats in
the
national assembly, and religious groups banding together in the MMA to earn
a
significant portion of seats for the first
time.
According to the constitution, Pakistan is a federation of four
provinces:
Baluchistan, the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), Punjab, and Sindh.
Governors appointed by the president head the provinces. There is also
the
Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), and the Islamabad
Capital
Territory, which consists of the capital city of Islamabad. These areas
and
territory are under the jurisdiction of the federal government. The
Northern
Areas are administered as a de facto "Union Territory" and are treated as
an
integral part of Pakistan. The Pakistani-administered portion of the
disputed
Jammu and Kashmir region includes Azad Kashmir, a separate and
autonomous
government that maintains strong ties to
Pakistan.
Principal Government
Officials
President--Pervez Musharraf
Prime Minister (head of government)--Shaukat Aziz
Minister of Foreign Affairs--Khurshid Kasuri
Ambassador to the U.S.--Jehangir Karamat
Ambassador to the UN--Munir Akram
Pakistan maintains an embassy in the United States at 3517
International
Court NW, Washington, DC 20008 (tel. 202-243-6500). It has consulates in
Los
Angeles, New York, Chicago and
Houston.
NATIONAL
SECURITY
Pakistan has the world's eighth-largest armed forces, which is generally
well
trained and disciplined. However, budget constraints and
nation-building
duties have reduced Pakistan's training tempo, which if not reversed,
could
affect the operational readiness of the armed forces. Likewise, Pakistan
has
had an increasingly difficult time maintaining their aging fleet of
U.S.,
Chinese, U.K., and French equipment. While industrial capabilities
have
expanded significantly, limited budget resources and sanctions
have
significantly constrained the government's efforts to modernize its
armed
forces.
Until 1990, the United States provided military aid to Pakistan to
modernize
its conventional defensive capability. The United States allocated about
40%
of its assistance package to non-reimbursable credits for military
purchases,
the third-largest program behind Israel and Egypt. The remainder of the
aid
program was devoted to economic assistance. Sanctions put in place in
1990
denied Pakistan further military assistance due to the discovery of
its
program to develop nuclear weapons. Sanctions were tightened
following
Pakistan's nuclear tests in response to India's May 1998 tests and
the
military coup of 1999. Pakistan has remained a non-signatory of the
Nuclear
non-Proliferation Treaty. The events of September 11, 2001, and
Pakistan's
agreement to support the United States led to a waiving of the sanctions,
and
military assistance resumed to provide spare parts and equipment to
enhance
Pakistan's capacity to police its western border and address its
legitimate
security concerns. In 2003, President Bush announced that the United
States
would provide Pakistan with $3 billion in economic and military aid over
5
years. This assistance package commenced during FY
2005.
ECONOMY
With a per capita GDP of about PPP $2,200, the World Bank considers
Pakistan
a low-income country. No more than 45.7% of adults are literate, and
life
expectancy is about 63 years. The population, currently about 162.4
million,
is growing at 2.0%
annually.
In 2000, the government made significant macroeconomic reforms.
Privatizing
Pakistan's state-subsidized utilities, instituting a world-class
anti-money
laundering law, cracking down on piracy of intellectual property, and
quickly
resolving investor disputes would aid Pakistan's efforts to improve
its
investment climate. After September 11, 2001, and Pakistan's
proclaimed
commitment to fighting terror, many international sanctions,
particularly
those imposed by the United States, were lifted. Pakistan's
economic
prospects began to increase significantly due to unprecedented inflows
of
foreign assistance at the end of 2001. This trend is expected to
continue
through 2009. Foreign exchange reserves and exports grew to record
levels
after a sharp decline. The International Monetary Fund recently
lauded
Pakistan for its commitment in meeting lender requirements for a $1.3
billion
IMF Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility loan, which it completed in
2004,
forgoing the final permitted tranche. The Government of Pakistan has
been
successful in issuing sovereign bonds, and has issued $600 million in
Islamic
bonds, putting Pakistan back on the investment map. Pakistan's search
for
additional foreign direct investment has been hampered by concerns about
the
security situation, domestic and regional political uncertainties,
and
questions about judicial
transparency.
U.S. assistance has played a key role in moving Pakistan's economy from
the
brink of collapse to setting record high levels of foreign reserves
and
exports, dramatically lowering levels of solid debt. This encouraged a
6.1%
GDP growth in fiscal year 2003-2004 and a reported GDP increase of over 8%
in
fiscal year 2004-2005. In 2002, the United States led Paris Club efforts
to
reschedule Pakistan's debt on generous terms, and in April 2003 the
United
States reduced Pakistan's bilateral official debt by $1 billion. In
2004,
approximately $500 million more in bilateral debt was granted. In the
second
half of 2004 and first half of 2005 inflation has been a concern,
rising
above the historic lows for inflation in
2004.
Low levels of spending in the social services and high population growth
have
contributed to persistent poverty and unequal income distribution. The
trends
of resources being devoted to socioeconomic development and
infrastructure
projects have been improving since 2002, although expenditures remain
below
global averages. Pakistan's extreme poverty and underdevelopment are
key
concerns. The government has reined in the fiscal mismanagement that
produced
massive foreign debt, and officials have committed to using
international
assistance--including a major part of the $3 billion five-year
U.S.
assistance package--to address Pakistan's long-term needs in the health
and
education
sectors.
The government started pursuing market-based economic reform policies in
the
early 1980s. These reforms began to take hold in 1988, when the
government
launched an ambitious IMF-assisted structural adjustment program in
response
to chronic and unsustainable fiscal and external account deficits.
The
government began to remove barriers to foreign trade and investment,
reform
the financial system, ease foreign exchange controls, and privatize dozens
of
state-owned
enterprises.
Although the economy became more structurally sound, it remained
vulnerable
to external and internal shocks, such as in 1992-93, when devastating
floods
and political uncertainty combined to depress economic growth sharply.
The
Asian financial crisis seriously affected Pakistan's major markets for
its
textile exports. During the 1980s and early 1990s, the economy averaged
a
growth rate of 6% per year, but afterwards growth dwindled until 2002.
For
example, average real GDP growth from 1992 to 1998 dipped to 4.1%
annually.
Economic reform also was set back by Pakistan's nuclear tests in May
1998,
and the subsequent economic sanctions imposed by the G-7.
International
default was narrowly averted by the partial waiver of sanctions and
the
subsequent reinstatement of Pakistan's IMF enhanced structural
adjustment
facility/extended fund facility in early 1999, followed by Paris Club
and
London Club re-scheduling. After taking power in late 1999,
President
Musharraf instituted policies to stabilize Pakistan's
macroeconomic
situation. Pakistan continues to struggle with these reforms, having
mixed
success, especially in reducing its budget and current account
deficits.
The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) enjoyed strong growth from 2003 to
early
2005, before undergoing a market correction of close to 20% of
market
capitalization in early 2005. KSE's market capitalization rebounded to
all
time highs in mid-2005. Regulations have been implemented targeted at
the
speculative margins-purchasing that was blamed for volatility in early
2005.
Agriculture and Natural
Resources
Pakistan's principal natural resources are arable land, water,
hydroelectric
potential, and natural gas reserves. About 28% of Pakistan's total land
area
is under cultivation and is watered by one of the largest irrigation
systems
in the world. Agriculture accounts for about 23% of GDP and employs about
42%
of the labor force. The most important crops are cotton, wheat,
rice,
sugarcane, fruits, and vegetables, which together account for more than
75%
of the value of total crop output. Despite intensive farming
practices,
Pakistan remains a net food importer. Pakistan exports rice, fish,
fruits,
and vegetables and imports vegetable oil, wheat, cotton (net
importer),
pulses, and consumer
foods.
The economic importance of agriculture has declined since independence,
when
its share of GDP was around 53%. Following the poor harvest of 1993,
the
government introduced agriculture assistance policies, including
increased
support prices for many agricultural commodities and expanded availability
of
agricultural credit. From 1993 to 1997, real growth in the
agricultural
sector averaged 5.7% but has since declined to less than 3%.
Agricultural
reforms, including increased wheat and oilseed production, play a
central
role in the government's economic reform package. Heavy rains in
2005
provided the benefit of larger than average cotton, wheat, and rice
crops,
but also caused damage due to flooding and
avalanches.
Pakistan has extensive energy resources, including fairly sizable natural
gas
reserves, some proven oil reserves, coal, and large hydropower
potential.
However, exploitation of energy resources has been slow due to a shortage
of
capital and domestic and international political constraints. For
instance,
domestic gas and petroleum production totals only about half the
country's
energy needs, and dependence on imported oil contributes to
Pakistan's &n